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4 reasons retail media ROAS overstates the effect

Why a network-reported ROAS is a self-assessment, not a measurement

List of four reasons retail media ROAS overstates the causal effect: the attribution window, peak-intent placement, no halo, and observational data.
Each of these pushes the reported number away from what the ads actually caused

A summary of four structural reasons a retail media network ROAS overstates what the advertising caused: the network picks the attribution window, sponsored products sit at the point of highest intent, the IAB/MRC incrementality chapter measures inside the retailer only, and observational data stays observational however clean it is. For brand and media teams deciding how much weight to give a network dashboard. Koji interviews shoppers to find out what the ad changed.

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  1. The window is the network's lever: A longer attribution window sweeps in purchases that would have happened anyway, so ROAS across networks can't be compared.
  2. Ads intercept demand at peak intent: Sponsored products sit in front of people who already searched, where ads most often get credit for sales they didn't cause.
  3. The incrementality chapter excludes halo: The IAB/MRC guidance measures impact inside the retailer only, so sales at other retailers are left out.
  4. Clean data is still not causal: Across 15 ad experiments, observational methods were off by a factor of three or more in half the studies.

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