Churn hazard curve checklist: 8 steps

An eight-step checklist for turning a churn rate into a hazard curve you can act on. Plot churn as a share of accounts that reached each month, mark the three regimes, re-plot within segments you knew at signup to rule out sorting, and assign one study per regime. For the wear-out regime it says to interview active tenured accounts rather than churned ones. Koji can field the three regime studies in parallel as AI-moderated interviews.

Where this appears

• The Churn Hazard Curve: Why One Churn Rate Hides Three Different Problems (2026)

What's in this checklist

• Plot the hazard: churned in month t divided by accounts that reached month t
• Use a log scale if the month 1 spike flattens everything else
• Mark the three regimes and check whether the tail turns back up
• Re-plot within segments you knew at signup to rule out sorting
• Never average churn across regimes for a decision that funds work
• Assign one study per regime, with the screen written from the hazard chart
• For wear-out, interview active tenured accounts, not churned ones
• Re-run the analysis every quarter, since regime boundaries move