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PMF score under 40%: what to do next

A decision path for founders with a low Sean Ellis score and a small sample

Flowchart for a PMF score under 40%: check active users and answer count, split by type, then build for a 40% group or go back to problem interviews.
Most low scores end at step four, with a group worth building for. Some end at problem interviews, and that's worth knowing too. Source: Koji synthesis, after Rahul Vohra, First Round Review (2018)
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A flowchart for founders whose product-market fit survey came back under 40%. It walks through cleaning the sample to active users, reading a small sample as a range, splitting the very disappointed by who they are and deciding whether to build for one group or go back to problem interviews. Share it with a co-founder before you decide to pivot. Koji can run the survey question, the screening question and the follow-up interviews in one study.

Where this appears

What's in this flowchart

Start: Your PMF score came back under 40%

  1. Did only active users answer?
    • Yes: go to 2.
    • No: Drop anyone not active lately. Keep people who used it twice in the last two weeks, then recount. Then go to 2.
  2. Do you have 30 or more answers?
    • Yes: go to 3.
    • No: Read it as a range, keep collecting. Report the Wilson range next to the score. Then go to 3.
  3. Split very disappointed users by type. Role, company size, use case, how they found you.
  4. Does a group of 8 or more score 40% or more?
    • Yes: go to 5.
    • No: Go back to problem interviews. No group needs you yet. Learn why before you build more.
  5. Interview 10 to 15 from that group. Plus 6 to 8 somewhat disappointed users who value the same thing.
  6. Finish: Build for them, re-run next quarter. Half the roadmap on what they love, half on what holds the others back.

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Free to use in your docs, decks and posts under CC BY 4.0, as long as you credit Koji with a link to this page. To embed it, paste this into your page:

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<a href="https://www.koji.so/visuals/pmf-score-under-40-what-to-do-next-flowchart"><img src="https://www.koji.so/visuals/pmf-score-under-40-what-to-do-next-flowchart/pmf-score-under-40-what-to-do-next-flowchart.png" alt="Flowchart for a PMF score under 40%: check active users and answer count, split by type, then build for a 40% group or go back to problem interviews." width="1200" height="1661" /></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://www.koji.so/visuals/pmf-score-under-40-what-to-do-next-flowchart">PMF score under 40%: what to do next</a>, Koji</p>

Related

Question bank of eight PMF follow-up questions for very disappointed users, somewhat disappointed users and before you change anything.

PMF follow-up interview questions

Range chart of the 95% Wilson interval around a 40% PMF score: 23% to 59% at 25 responses, 25% to 58% at 30, 28% to 54% at 50 and 31% to 50% at 100.

What a 40% PMF score could really be

Flowchart for choosing an AI interview question generator: three questions, two exits and one side step, ending in a preview before you send the link.

Which AI interview question generator fits?