When purchase intent predicts sales: six conditions

A framework of the six conditions under which stated purchase intentions are most closely linked to later purchases, taken from a meta-analysis by Vicki Morwitz, Joel Steckel and Alok Gupta. Use it before reading a concept test or price test as a forecast: a new, non-durable product asked about far ahead sits at the weak end of most lines. Koji pairs every intent rating with a follow-up asking why, so you can see what sits behind the number.

Where this appears

• Purchase Intent Scale: How to Ask "Would You Buy This?" and Read the Answer

What's in this framework

1. Existing products: Intent tracks sales more closely for products people already know than for new ones.
2. Durable goods: The link is stronger for durables, such as cars and appliances, than for non-durables.
3. Short time horizons: The nearer the purchase window, the better stated intent predicts it.
4. Brand-level questions: Asking about a specific brand predicts better than asking about the whole category.
5. Trial, not total sales: Intent predicts whether people try a product better than it predicts total market sales.
6. Comparative questions: Intent collected in a comparative mode predicts better than a rating given in isolation.